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Create an Audience with Future Behavior Predictions

Future behavior predictions help you answer “who is most likely to complete this action” so you can build audiences that focus your campaigns on the users most likely to convert, churn, or engage. This page explains how to turn a future behavior prediction into a targetable audience in mParticle.

Step 1. Identify your goal and create a future behavior prediction

Start by clarifying the outcome you want to drive. For example, you might want to:

Increase subscription upgrades
Reduce churn within a specific time window
Drive repeat purchases
Encourage users to try a new feature

Once you have a goal, create a future behavior prediction that measures the likelihood of that outcome. Follow the instructions in Create a Future Behavior Prediction to:

Define the target event (the behavior you want to predict).
Choose the prediction window.
Specify which users are in scope.
Configure the refresh schedule.

Allow the prediction to calculate until its status is active and the prediction strength is moderate or strong.

Step 2. Review the prediction and choose a target range

From the Predictive Attributes landing page, click your prediction to open the details page.

Refer to the prediction recap to confirm that the target behavior, prediction window, and target users match your goal.

Under Prediction Results, check the prediction strength, last refresh, refresh frequency, and status to confirm that the model is reliable and current.

Next, use the target range section to decide which slice of scored users you want to include in your audience.

Open the target range dropdown.
Compare the preset options or define a custom range:
- Most likely users focuses on the users with the highest predicted conversion rate.
- Users above average balances higher performance with broader reach.
- Users below average can support nurture, churn-prevention, or awareness campaigns.
- Custom range lets you choose exact percentiles so you can fine tune performance and audience size.
For the selected range, review the following:
- Estimated Reach to see how many users you will target.
- Predicted CVR to understand expected conversion performance.
- Predicted Lift to see how much better the range is expected to perform compared to targeting all scored users.

Use the likelihood percentiles chart to visualize where your chosen range sits from least likely to most likely to perform the behavior and how its predicted CVR compares to the overall average.

For a deeper explanation of prediction strength, refresh behavior, statuses, and the charts on this page, see Manage Future Behavior Predictions.

Step 3. Save the range as a new audience

After selecting the user range you want to target:

In the target range section, click Save as New Audience.
The Audience Builder opens with the prediction and selected percentile range already set as membership criteria.
Add any additional membership criteria you want to further refine your audience. For example, add geography, channel preferences, or eligibility rules.
Name and save the audience.

The audience automatically updates as the prediction refreshes so membership reflects the latest scores.

Step 4. Activate and monitor

After you save the audience:

Connect it to your downstream destinations, such as ad networks, email platforms, or engagement tools.
Monitor performance and compare it to your benchmarks or control groups.
Periodically revisit the prediction details page to:
- Confirm prediction strength remains moderate or strong.
- Adjust the target range if you want a different balance between reach and efficiency.

Because predictive attributes refresh on the schedule you configure, your audiences stay aligned with current user behavior.

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Last Updated: January 14, 2026